As a result of solving the foreign currency loan problem, the purchasing power of Hungarian households will increase significantly, according to a senior analyst at Good Finance.
Solving the problem of foreign currency loans went smoothly, and the country’s vulnerability decreased significantly – wrote András Balatoni in his forecast to MTI.
The analysis shows that it is not in the government’s interest
That at the time of actual conversion – the forint exchange rate (March-April 2015) – the forint exchange rate be stronger than the statutory levels (256.6 for Swiss francs and 309.0 for the euro) , so decision makers probably want the forint to weaken in the first half of 2015
ING forecasts that the euro will be 312 forints in the first quarter of 2015, 315 forints in the second quarter, and the annual average exchange rate to be 310 forints.
Inflation may exceed 3 percent in the last quarter
2015 due to a zero output gap and tax increases, but the National Bank of Hungary is expected to be reluctant to raise interest rates, according to Good Finance.
The analyst warned that despite fiscal tightening in 2015, budget reserves are not enough to offset all risks on the revenue side. The bank predicts that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.2 percent a year in 2015, after realizing 3.3 percent this year.
Annual industrial production growth
Will moderate to 2.8 percent after 7.5 percent in 2014. The current account surplus is declining to less than a third – from EUR 3.9 billion in 2014 to EUR 1.2 billion in 2015 – and foreign trade surplus has fallen by just over a third, from EUR 6.2 billion to EUR 4.3 billion the analyst.
As the government does not plan to issue foreign currency bonds by 2015, the proportion of foreign currency government bonds will fall below 34 percent from the current 36.4 percent. Yields are expected to grow slightly, with ten-year paper expected to grow from 3.5 percent this year to 4.2 percent, according to a senior analyst.